Success in an Improving Economy

Mike Loughrin, CFPIM, CIRM


Business is picking up for many companies and we see evidence that some companies are experiencing an event that has been absent for years ŕ demand is greater than supply!

While there are not yet many actual capacity shortages, there are many imbalances and times when unexpectedly high demand is leading to customer service failures. This can be significant for those companies that operate with a quarter-end hockey stick demand pattern.

As the economy improves, you need to evaluate your ability to react to unexpectedly high demand. The last couple of years have been a period of aggressive cost reductions. Many companies may find that their upside flexibility was eliminated or is simply rusty from lack of use. Now is the time to assess the following key processes to ensure they leverage best practices required to support upside flexibility in times of rising demand:

A.                 Demand Management

B.                Supply Management

C.                Sales & Operations Planning

A. Your Demand Management processes need to leverage a collaborative approach with your key customers and utilize a Weekly Bookings Review. A collaborative approach with your key customers will ensure that you have visibility into true customer requirements. This is not the time to fall victim to the “bull whip effect.” You need frequent updates on actual end-user demand such as POS data and on actual inventories through-out your extended supply chain. The weekly bookings review ensures that incoming orders are routinely compared with the demand forecast. Waiting until the end of the month or end of the quarter is too late. A frequent analysis combined with an aggressive pro-active approach to addressing variances will help minimize the impact of unexpected increases in demand.

B. Your Supply Management processes need to leverage a collaborative approach with your key suppliers and utilize the concepts of High Flexibility Scheduling. A collaborative approach with your key suppliers will ensure that you have visibility into their “capable to promise.” You should also share information on your planned production so you do not pass the bull whip effect onto your suppliers. Through high flexibility scheduling concepts, you need to leverage the technique of “Plan to a Forecast; Execute to an Order.” This is not the time for unrealistic expectations of high forecast accuracy and the last thing you want is an atmosphere where all forecasts become too high in an effort to drive up inventory and “control” the shortages.

C. Your executive team should be directing your supply chain to competitive advantage through use of a Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) process. This critical process ensures everyone is on the same page and also provides top management with the visibility and tools required to navigate in a period of rising demand. Companies with an exceptional S&OP process are able to analyze the financial implications of various alternatives and will also direct project and/or capacity initiatives required to take advantage of new opportunities.

To summarize, the improving economy is creating the need to leverage processes that may be a little rusty when addressing the need for upside flexibility. Now is the time to assess your Demand Management, Supply Management, and S&OP processes to ensure they are up to challenges ahead. As a final note, an improving economy may lead to increased employee turnover. Your assessment of these critical processes should include the status of cross training and documentation to reduce the risk of losing critical knowledge.

Mike Loughrin is a Partner with Transformance Advisors. You can contact him at mloughrin@emailta.com

 

For additional insights, please visit our website for more information from our Benchmarking study on Managing Imbalances in Demand and Supply: www.transformanceadvisors.com/publications.htm